中国 AI 生态 beyond DeepSeek 概览

Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 (@pmarca) 转发了 MTS (@MTSlive) 的帖子： SITUATION EXPLAINED: What does the Chinese AI ecosystem actually look like beyond DeepSeek? Gabrierl (.@gbrl_dick) asked @FleetingBits, anonymous AI researcher. "Most people are familiar with DeepSeek. But if we look at other Chinese labs like Zhipu, Minimax, Moonshot, ByteDance, they're a little bit less well known." "Zhipu is sort of the Chinese equivalent of Palantir... it receives state support through contracts with state-owned enterprises. GLM 5.2 was a Zhipu model. And unique among Chinese AI labs, it has actually pretty good gross margins, around 40%. All of its revenue comes from these state-owned enterprises for which it does these Palantir deployments where it takes its GLM models and deploys them locally on their hardware." "MiniMax is interesting because they're sort of the character AI of China, a companion app called Talky and a video generation app called Hailuo. And the majority of their revenue comes from outside China, including a decent chunk from the United States." "Doubao, which is ByteDance's equivalent of ChatGPT, is the most popular AI app in China." "The Chinese ChatGPT is actually ByteDance. And I think they don't make a splash in America because they don't open source any of their models." https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2070686660971614208/vid/avc1/1280x720/m--4T1lGKmEF3zNU.mp4?tag=14 > **引用原帖 FleetingBits (@fleetingbits):** > some quick thoughts on chinese ai company recruiting > 1) in this post, epoch ai reviewed the job listings at chinese near-frontier labs > 2) for people without background on the chinese ai ecosystem, here are some quick notes: > 2a) zhipu and deepseek are national champions; and, both appear to receive institutional support; zhipu with customers, deepseek with native chips > 2b) we have the most information on zhipu and minimax because both of these are public and their statements are easier to read bec they are just ai cos (cf alibaba) > 2c) zhipu is chinese palantir; it targets state owned enterprises and derives 70% of its revenue from local deployments; it has good gross margins > 2d) minimax is chinese character ai; it derives 70% of its revenue from the combination of a companion app and a video generation platform; it has bad gross margins > 2e) bytedance owns doubao, the chatgpt of china, with the largest consumer market share; it offers both voice and video generation > 2f) both deepseek and zhipu seem to have some level of national champion status; zhipu in its customer base and deepseek in its local chip partnerships > 2g) chinese companies have essentially 0% gross margins on api inference; if zhipu and minimax are representative > 3) with respect to commercial direction, deepseek and moonshot appear to be focusing on llms, while zhipu, bytedance and alibaba are also considering robotics > 4) at least for deepseek, this might be the more rsi pilled direction; since robotics seems less valuable than llms if you think that rsi is near > 5) on the supply side, deepseek, minimax and moonshot all seem to be building out data centers; interesting if they are more hands on than western labs > 6) also, on nvidia, bytedance is hiring cuda developers for inference; zhipu says it trained glm-image on local chips but it appears does not talk about glm-5.2 > 7) also interesting, chinese labs are willing to hire less experienced employees than western labs (1.6 years of experience average vs 5.5 years; anthropic at 6.5 years) > 8) one read on this is that western labs are more agi pilled and think that they should have fewer more experienced employees to utilize more capitalization > 9) but, i think this generally reflects the fact that chinese companies expect more to train you on the job while american companies want people with the skills right away > 10) good follow-up would be more research on the chinese datacenter build out; more analysis of their research roles; and more discussion of compute per researcher in china vs the united states > https://x.com/fleetingbits/status/2070273663669317852