AI光子供应瓶颈

NVIDIA锁 → AMD抢 → 独立产能稀缺 → 定价权/订单改善，类似之前GPU、电源或HBM的某些阶段， 我觉得这条逻辑链值钱就值钱在它清晰——英伟达锁产能、AMD 下场抢、独立产能快见底、谁有货谁定价，但还是希望大家明白，清晰不等于现在就该冲进去。 先讲积极的那一半：如果 CPO 采用加速、AMD 的长约落地、AAOI 德州扩产兑现、Sivers 的定位坐实、Luxnet 规模化出货，这几个节点打穿任意一个，相关公司就有量价支撑，链条是完整的，催化剂也是可追踪的。 但冷水必须浇一下， 1️⃣预期已经跑了一段，Sivers 这类近期涨幅不小。 2️⃣小盘股的波动不是一般人能扛的，AAOI 日内吞人不是一次两次。 3️⃣技术路线不是铁板钉钉——LPO 线性插拔如果跑通，对高功率 CW 的需求会被削一刀。 4️⃣扩产、良率、InP 基板紧缺，随便哪个卡住，时间表就往后推。 5️⃣最关键的：CPO 大规模放量可能要到 2026-2028 年。逻辑再顺，中间隔了两年，什么变数都能发生。 6️⃣地缘政治、AI capex 节奏、利率，这些宏观变量也悬在上面。 这故事有点像早期的 GPU、HBM——逻辑漂亮，波动巨大，看得懂牌的人不一定扛得住牌桌摇晃。 看来AI下一个卡脖子生死线，不是GPU也不是HBM，可能是没人盯的高功率CW激光器。 NVIDIA已经锁死两家头部供应商核心产能，同时AMD也正下场争抢仅剩的个位数独立供给。 CPO加硅光子已成AI大集群标配路线，InP基板从2024年起就进入持续紧缺状态。 AMD只是第一张多米诺骨牌，后续头部云厂商大概率会集体下场锁定产能。 西方可接单的独立激光产能所剩无几，连头部厂自身都要外包且已全线满产。   > **引用原帖 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit):** > Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... > Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? > There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. > Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) > Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. > From the Trendforce report, this is: > "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." > I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. > A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. > But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it. > https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2067206734427697196 AYi (@AYi_AInotes): 要是我的话可能会把 AAOI 和 Sivers 当观测标而不是重仓标的，盯着两个信号——德州扩产的环评时间线出不出意外 + 下一个签长约的是微软还是亚马逊，CPO 这个方向我信，之前赚过不少，但 2026 年才开席，现在上桌太早容易被人当菜🐶